The 96th Academy Awards Are Both Surprising and Predictable

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Last year, Forest Taylor correctly predicted seven out of 10 Oscar winners. Let's see how his forecast pans out in 2024 with a year full of blockbuster hits alongside more subtle, arthouse favorites.

Once again, another year of great films is behind us and, once again, a bunch of them are now competing to win a little golden man. This list of nominees somehow gives us both unexpected twists and business as usual. There were some surprises (Barbie both over-performing and underperforming), disappointments (Todd Haynes' brilliant May December almost completely shut out), and causes for celebration (we now have our first ever Oscar-nominated Godzilla film). So now, let's move to the major awards and some other categories that I feel compelled to talk about.

Best Picture

With Barbie getting eight nominations but nothing for directing, editing, or cinematography, its chances of a Best Picture win are now slim. I expected it to be a clear challenge to Oppenheimer's dominance, but now that distinction has seemingly gone to Poor Things which may end up being the ultimate upset and take it all. That said, Christopher Nolan's epic is that rare feat in Hollywood: a critical darling that also made absurd amounts of money, and I can easily see the Academy honoring that fact by giving Oppenheimer the big one.

Best Director

Greta Gerwig continues to follow in the footsteps of her mentor Steven Spielberg by directing the biggest box office hit of the year and not getting a Best Director nod for it. With her out of the running, this really comes down to Nolan and Poor Things director Yorgos Lanthimos. Although a part of me would love to see Martin Scorsese get another one for making one of the best films of his career well into his 80s, I know it's a race between these two. While everything is telling me Nolan has this in the bag, it's possible that Lanthimos could be a big upset. But I still think Nolan has it.

Best Actor

Months ago it seemed like this category was Bradley Cooper's to lose for his six-years-in-the-making passion project Maestro, but hype for that film has almost completely fallen off and Cooper's nomination feels more like a formality with Cillian Murphy and even Paul Giamatti surpassing him as the clear front runner. At this point, Murphy has all the momentum behind him and his win is all but guaranteed. Sorry, Bradley.

Best Actress

This could be the hardest to predict. Even with Margot Robbie's surprise snub, there are strong contenders all around. The two frontrunners are clearly Lily Gladstone for Killers of the Flower Moon and Emma Stone for Poor Things with a dark horse in the form of Sandra Huller for Anatomy of a Fall. Honestly, this one could go either way, but I'm going to vote with my heart and predict Gladstone will become the first Indigenous woman to win an acting Oscar.

Best Supporting Actor

There are plenty of strong performances here (although excluding Charles Melton's quietly sad performance in May December is a tragedy), but it really comes down to Robert Downey Jr. and Ryan Gosling. Given the Academy's track record for ignoring comedies, this should be an easy win for Downey (Oppenheimer). That said, I feel like the Academy is going to throw some love to the biggest movie of the year and this may be where they do it. I predict a Ryan Gosling upset. He just has that Kenergy.

Best Supporting Actress

This category is the polar opposite of Lead Actress as this one is the easiest to predict. Da'Vine Joy Randolph's funny, empathetic performance in The Holdovers was one of the best of the year and her momentum has not slowed down this entire awards season. She has this one in the bag.

Best Screenplay

After it was revealed that Barbie was ineligible (since it's adapted from a toy line), the Original Screenplay category is wide open for some surprises. Great scripts like Anatomy of a Fall, Past Lives, and May December (can you tell I love May December? Review coming soon) all have a shot, but the strongest contender remains The Holdovers which I think will win, but this one could go several different ways. As for Adapted Screenplay, after a snub for Killers, this one is a dead heat between Oppenheimer and Poor Things with a possible Barbie upset. I think Poor Things has the best chance in this category.

Best International Feature

Although it did very well in nominations, I think Jonathan Glazer's The Zone of Interest will only win in this category. I'm a little disappointed that Aki Kaurismaki's Fallen Leaves didn't get any love.

Best Original Song

This one will most likely go to "What Was I Made For?" from Barbie but I'd much rather see it go to the fist-pumping, show-stopping anthem "I'm Just Ken." Why does the best song always have to be so weepy? I'm just going to assume they didn't nominate "Camp Isn't Home" from Theater Camp to keep things competitive.

Best Visual Effects

Surprisingly, the two favored nominees are the films with the lowest budgets. Gareth Edwards' underrated The Creator and unexpected hit Godzilla Minus One. I hope Hollywood realizes that films don't need to have enormous budgets to achieve amazing special effects. I would love to see Godzilla get this one and give some love to the Japanese effects industry.

The 96th Academy Awards will air on ABC at 7 p.m. on Sunday, Mar. 10.

Forest's Predictions

Best Picture: Oppenheimer

Best Director: Christopher Nolan - Oppenheimer

Best Actor: Cillian Murphy - Oppenheimer

Best Actress: Lily Gladstone - Killers of the Flower Moon

Best Supporting Actor: Ryan Gosling - Barbie

Best Supporting Actress: Da'Vine Joy Randolph - The Holdovers

Best Original Screenplay: David Hemingson - The Holdovers

Best Adapted Screenplay: Tony McNamara - Poor Things

Best International Feature: The Zone of Interest (United Kingdom)

Best Original Song: "What Was I Made For?" from Barbie

Best Visual Effects: Godzilla Minus One