Immigrant Voters Shift Right

freshidea

In a presidential race that has culminated in this moment in history, immigration was the issue at the forefront of voter's minds and, surprisingly, immigrants turned out to help vote Trump into office. In contributor Jeff Bloodworth's recent trip to D.C. for the inauguration, he reflects on some conversations he had with immigrants to the U.S. and uncovers their motivations.

Ashan loves America. He believes, "America is number one!" The Bangladeshi immigrant came to the U.S. in 2012, and by 2024, he had earned his citizenship and cast his first-ever presidential ballot — for Donald Trump. In 2016, the idea that a Muslim-American immigrant could vote Trump was unthinkable. But by 2025, it's no longer surprising.

The numbers tell the story. Polls show Trump narrowly winning the Muslim vote over Kamala Harris. But the larger shift is among non-white, working-class men — especially African Americans and Latinos — who moved toward Trump in 2024. In Pennsylvania, Trump secured 42 percent of the Latino vote, up 15 percentage points from 2020. In a close race, that made all the difference. Though there's limited polling from Erie's non-white voters, in areas with significant non-white populations like the first and second wards, Harris fell 618 votes short of Biden's 2020 total, while Trump improved on his by 61 votes. Across Pennsylvania's non-white districts, these small but crucial shifts helped secure Trump's narrow victory.

In January, I was in Washington for the inauguration and took a Lyft ride to the airport. Ashan was my driver. As we drove, he praised Hillary Clinton as "good" and called Michelle Obama a "great communicator." But his primary concern? Immigration. "Biden is too loose on immigration. It's too easy. Anyone is coming. You don't know the quality of the person," he told me in broken English. I didn't agree with Ashan, but his words stayed with me.

I found that Ashan wasn't alone in his sentiments. I asked an Erieite and first-generation Mexican American about his vote. "Nico" (who asked that his name be withheld) also voiced frustration about immigration. "Biden's open borders really pissed me off," he said. A lifelong Democrat, he and his brothers all voted for Trump.

It's easy to call out the hypocrisy of naturalized immigrants becoming border hawks. But let's try to understand Ashan's perspective. He came to America legally in 2012, waited patiently for 13 years to become a citizen, and watched others gain access to state benefits he was once denied. Now, asylum seekers are eligible for driver's licenses, work permits, and government support. While I have no problem with this — I'm glad they get it — Ashan and Nico see others receiving what they once couldn't. ProPublica reports that sentiments like theirs are common in immigrant communities.

Immigrants drive America's economic engine. Nearly half of all Fortune 500 companies are founded by immigrants or their children. Immigrant entrepreneurs are revitalizing cities like Erie. My New American students are generally the hardest working and most driven. Yet, 80 percent of Kamala Harris voters support stronger border enforcement. This could have been easily addressed if Biden and a Democratic Congress had allowed asylum seekers to apply from their home countries instead of making the dangerous trek to the southern border. Democrats could have admitted qualified asylum seekers without the chaos, while also denying Trump a potent issue.

Yes, it's frustrating that many recent immigrants voted for Trump, even though he wants to reverse birthright citizenship and has escalated ICE roundups. But liberals need to understand: real-world politics isn't The West Wing. People are complicated and self-interested. I consume political news the way E.T. does Reese's Pieces. Meanwhile, regular voters make snap judgments based on their frenemy's Snapchat. Progressive voters are like Charlie Brown, forever trying to kick the football, but Lucy keeps pulling it away. If liberals want to win, we need to understand why Lucy moves the ball and how that damn Charlie Brown can change his losing ways.

Joe Biden passed significant legislation that benefited working-class Americans: the infrastructure bill, the CHIPS Act, and expanded child tax credits. Yet, Ashan, Nico, and many non-white working-class men still voted for Trump. Will Marshall, founder of the Washington, D.C.-based Progressive Policy Institute, summed it up: "You can't just appeal to people's material interests. You must appeal to their moral interests." In the eyes of voters, individual bills don't matter if they don't align with their sense of what's just and fair.

Donald Trump capitalizes on these resentments, portraying himself as the defender of voters' moral interests. Yes, Trump probably thinks the "Golden Rule" is advice for bathroom décor, but Trump's moral failings are beside the point. The working-class voters who once supported Democrats now feel that the party no longer aligns with their moral values. And here's the twist: we highly-educated progressives are part of the problem. Although we make up only about 12 percent of Democratic voters, we have an outsized influence in media, politics, and academia. Our views are often far left of the average voter, including non-white, working-class people. This has turned progressive positions into party orthodoxy and opened the door for populist demagogues like Trump.

Ashan and Nico still believe "immigrants get things done," but this Obama-era vibe seems intangible for today's progressives. Progressives are the only demographic in America that believes, "success is largely beyond an individual's control" according to a 2021 poll conducted by the Pew Research Center. But for people like Nico — whose parents crossed the Sonoran Desert, wrapping their ankles in garlic to repel snakes, and sleeping in caves — success is very much something you can control. That's Nico's lived experience.

In the past, Democrats were able to connect with working-class voters because they appealed to their moral sensibilities. Harvard historian Lizbeth Cohen called this approach "moral capitalism" — an idea that promises everyone, whether owner or worker, a fair share. This ethos, deeply rooted in American political culture, used to be the glue that bound the Democratic coalition together.

Franklin D. Roosevelt's New Deal was built on this idea, focusing on the "forgotten man at the bottom of the economic pyramid." Social Security, Medicare, and other programs were framed as "earned benefits," not handouts. That's the secret: working-class voters want to feel like they earned their benefits. In 2008, Barack Obama echoed this vision by promising "if you work hard and meet your responsibilities, you can get ahead." The non-white working class backed him in record numbers, helping him win in key swing states.

If Democrats want to recapture the immigrant and working-class vote, they must reconnect with this moral capitalism. Trump's vision is not inevitable. Democrats can support immigrants and appeal to working-class voters while staying true to their values. But all of us, the "Charlie Browns" of the left need to understand the motivations of everyday voters—if we don't, we'll keep losing.

As Will Marshall told me, "White non-college-educated Americans are firmly in the Trumpian populist camp, and Black and especially Hispanic working-class voters are drifting to the right as well. They aren't fixated on government redistribution in the name of equality or social justice; they're aspirational and want to see a dynamic, growing economy that creates abundant opportunities for good jobs and careers for those who work hard and play by the rules."

A Trumpian future is not written in stone. Liberals can find a way to support immigrants and appeal to the working class, but only if we understand the real issues — and stop trying to kick the political football without understanding why it keeps getting pulled away.

Jeff Bloodworth is a professor of American political history at Gannon University. You can follow him on Twitter/X @jhueybloodworth or reach him at bloodwor003@gannon.edu